Some of the variables to considered when estimating

Moriaf's firm's market timing performance


1) Moraif apparently manages some of his client’s money, while other clients control their own brokerage accounts while acting on direction from Moraif. It is unclear if Moraif has always managed some client’s money, or started offering this service at some point in time after his first market timing call on 11/27/2007.

2) Moraif does not disclose the buy and sell prices of client shares that may be under management, nor what securities are invested in or recommended. We are left to estimate based on assumptions.

3) Buy and sell price estimations depend on what time of the day the trades were executed. Securities such as index funds and stocks trade during the day. Mutual fund prices generally settle after the close of trading and generally at the closing price of the day.

We shall assume that clients who own stocks and index funds via self-managed brokerage accounts would likely make their trades at the open of trading via market orders. Some clients may own mutual funds that generally settle at the closing price of the day.

As for money managed by Moraif, he has at times indicated it may not be traded all at once (such as at the open of trading). It may instead be traded during the course of the day. For these situations we may use the average price of the day to estimate a buy or sell price.

On other occasions, it appears as though Moraif has invested in mutual funds, and so we shall assume that these investments settled at the close of trading for the day. A Bogleheads forum poster (screen name zbxb006) claimed in Feb 2015 that Moraif recommends mutual funds.

4) We shall use the S&P 500 total return index as the benchmark for analyzing Moraif’s market timing performance. Unlike price return indexes, a total return index includes reinvestment of dividends. This is important because when you sell off stock securities, you are no longer earning dividends.

5) We are not factoring in decreased returns due to taxes, which vary by investor. When you pay taxes sooner than later, that tax money paid represents money that can no longer continue to grow and compound.

6) Moraif charges his management fee, apparently on a quarterly basis. For simplicity we have instead subtracted 1.25% on Jan 1st of every year. This fee may vary depending on the valuation of the client assets under management. According to RIA Intel, Moraif's firm charges an annual fee based on assets managed “generally equal to 1.25%.” According to a Better Business Bureau complaint Moraif charged a customer 1 1/4% to manage $73,000.

7) It is unclear if on some occasions Moraif invested the stock sale proceeds into bonds. For 2016 we have assumed that proceeds were swept into bonds. For all other market timing calls we shall assume that the stock sale proceeds sat in cash.

8) During Moraif's 2020 market timing call, he stated that the stock sale proceeds were placed in a money market account, presumably earning a tiny amount of interst. We are not accounting for this interest since it would be so minimal and likely more than negated by capital gains taxes from the stock sales.


GO BACK to Ken Moraif / Retirement Planners of America review


Disclaimer and Waiver - Nothing on this consumer advocate website is intended as investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy, hold or sell, or as an endorsement, of any company, security, fund, product or other offering. This website, its owners, affiliates, agents and / or contributors are not financial or investment advisors or broker / dealers and assume no liability whatsoever by your reliance on the information contained herein. The information should not be relied upon for purposes of transacting securities, assets, financial products or other investments. Your use of the information contained herein is at your own risk. The content is provided 'as is' and without warranties, either expressed or implied. This site does not promise or guarantee any income or particular result from your use of the information contained herein. It is your responsibility to evaluate any information, opinion, advice or other content contained. Always hire and consult with a professional regarding the evaluation of any specific information, opinion, or other content.